ToKCast

Ep 199: David Deutsch’s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 10 ”The Nature of Mathematics” Part 2

The certainty of mathematics and its place in the supposed hierarchy of subjects (assumed to be above science which is itself above philosophy in turn). Some more remarks on Bayesianism and somehow ghosts and alien life.

Ep 198: Bayesianism

Everything and more one might ever want to know about the topic...that other epistemology people often talk about. The central project is to distinguish between 4 "species" of what is often called "Bayesianism" 
1. Bayes' Theorem.
2. Bayesian Statistics.
3. Bayesian Reasoning
4. Bayesian Epistemology. 
 
Actual timestampes and chapters are:
 
00:00 - Introduction to this podcast
02:55 Epistemology 
11:30 Substrate Independence
12:30 Inexplicit Knowledge/Knowledge without a knower
21:30 Explanatory Universality and Supernaturalism
24:30 When we lack good explanations
29:00 Rational Decision Theory 
33:39: Bayes’ Theorem
41:40 Bayesian Statistics
1:07:50 Bayesian Reasoning
1:16:00 Bayesian “Epistemology”
1:20:13: Quick Recap
1:20:49 A question from Stephen Mix
1:21:50 “Confidence” in epistemology
1:26:13 Measurement and Uncertainty
1:31:50 Confidence and experimental replication
 
Join the conversation https://getairchat.com/s/p3ql7kNB

Ep 197: David Deutsch’s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 10 ”The Nature of Mathematics” Part 1: Introduction

This episode is an introduction to the chapter. Although there are some readings, they are limited and I provide context by diving deep into David's more recent work on all this. Specifically we go through the connection of Chapter 10 here (published in 1997) and Chapter 5 "The Reality of Abstractions" from "The Beginning of Infinity" (published in 2011) and then also in light of David's recent speech given at his Dirac Medal award ceremony (published in 2017) - here is the timestamped link to that https://www.youtube.com/live/J7HeDX_7... and the text of that speech is online here: https://www.daviddeutsch.org.uk/wp-co... None of that is essential reading (or listening) for this episode - but it can help. As always - buy "The Fabric of Reality" and read along as I never read the entire chapter - just excerpts!

Ep 196: The Mother Military

Commentary (and Explainer) This podcast is largely an op-ed about the "feminisation" of Western militaries and the effect of so-called "diversity, equity and inclusion" ideologies on modern defence forces. I look at what the purpose of a military is and the tension between its aims and the ways some arms of some defence forces are "marketing" themselves to their own people. Of chief concern to some has been the way the US army has chosen to attempt to recruit people into its ranks. Timestamps/Chapters and references below.
00:00 Introduction secs: concerns of late about military decline/changes in standards
00:25 Concerns about politicising the military
1:23 - Should physical standards be lowered to accommodate “diversity” in the military?
2:18 The Military as a deterrent (as nuclear weapons are a special case of) First Pass
3:08: The “Mutually Assured Destruction” trope is a lie
5:01 - Chinese/Russian tech (military & other) is a stolen, poor imitation of Western innovation
6:20 - A comparison of military forces in terms of numbers (expenditure, land/air/manpower, materiel, capabilities)
10:30 The difference in Military Cultures (Jocko Willink on decentralised command).
12:14 - Gandalf’s cameo
12:18 - raw soldier numbers vs army cultures and capabilities
12:31 Case Study: North Korea “the world’s 4th largest army”.
13:54 - Case Study: The Russia Ukraine war
14:24 Case Study: The First Gulf War - The Tank Battle
16:18 Case study: the 6 day Israeli war
17:46 The Military as a deterrent (Second Pass)
19:08 Gratuitous Holiday Snap
19:56 The Mother Military Thesis
21:56 North Korea/Communism and Cancel Culture
22:51 Contemporary Western Nations and Cancel Culture
23:27 Woke Culture and Toxic Masculinity
26:23 Is there sexism in custody proceedings?
27:54 - Toxic “Father” Masculinity vs A Feminist “Mother” Military
28:39 The US Army recruitment advertisement controversy 30:53 Alan Watts on “Prickles and Goo” 31:21 Masculine and Feminine traits: some comparisons
33:50 James Damore and “the Google Memo” - commentary
34:19 The function and public face of the military 35:46 Pathological Goo: Jordan Peterson and The Devouring Mother
37:14 Early Signs of military culture rot?
39:04 Exclusive Clubs, Bouncers and Gay Culture
39:57 The Military as a Deterrent (Third Pass)
40:34 - Comparison of Recruitment Tactics - US Army vs US Marines or US Army vs Russian/Chinese Army.
41:24 Conclusions
42:11 Credits, How to support the channel, podcast and me
References: 1. https://youtu.be/MIYGFSONKbk?si=C8mFqnObEburxXqz
2. A recent article from Australian media about coercion of "LGBTQIA+" ideologies on cadets: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-27/adf-academy-cadets-claim-they-were-pressured-to-remove-uniforms/102780562
3. US Marine corps recruitment ad for comparison: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9gTAjbiQEM
4. Humorous Aussie analysis of US vs Russian & Chinese army recruitment commercials: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXmyWdZfdgk
5. Ex-Marine comments on US Military Matters (Jameson's Travels) - https://www.youtube.com/@UC-N44TadAniwC7v8Zj858nQ #woke #feminism #military #transition #army #philosophy "Like" my video and "subscribe" to my channel :)

Ep 195: Knowledge, Wealth and Constructors

Very brief readings from and lengthy reflections upon David Deutsch's paper "The Philosophy of Constructor Theory" published here https://link.springer.com/article/10.... and available in full here: https://www.constructortheory.org/por... #physics #knowledge #philosophy #epistemology #daviddeutsch #science
Also available on Youtube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMCx2Com7LU
Discuss this or any episode of ToKCast on ToKChat: a channel on "Airchat" available here for download for iPhone and Android: https://www.getairchat.com/
ToKChat is here: https://www.getairchat.com/bretthall/tokchat
Timestamps/chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:45 Predictions are not always possible
01:27 The Unpredictable
02:33 The Content of Future Theories
03:36 Better Theories Better Explain What Exists
04:31 The Principle of Testability
04:58 The Negation of an Explanation is Not an Explanation
06:04 Knowledge is the most significant entity in the universe
06:33 The Most Important Kind of Abstract Constructor Is Knowledge (Part 1)
07:22 The Most Important Kind of Abstract Constructor Is Knowledge (Part 2)
07:44 Physics is almost entirely the study of the effects of knowledge
08:40 Knowledge is not primarily about the content of minds
09:20 People are more significant than any religion realises
10:15 Wealth = Knowledge + Resources
11:15 Ultimately, Knowledge is the Only Scarce Resource
12:05 Knowledge determines which physical transformations happen
13:17 Knowledge is Information with Causal Power
14:13 Knowledge is Substrate Independent (Part 1)
15:11 Knowledge is Substrate Independent (Part 2)
16:01 Knowledge is Substrate Independent (Part 3)
16:12 Knowledge is Substrate Independent (Part 4)
17:01 Knowledge is Substrate Independent (Part 5)
17:44 Knowledge is Substrate Independent (Part 6)
18:34 Knowledge is Substrate Independent (Part 7)
19:35 The Role of Emotion in Objective Knowledge Creation
20:31 On Why People are Unique
21:16 Humans Routinely Defy Their Instincts
22:13 People are Universal Explainers
23:16 Human Brains obey the Laws of Physics
23:57 Many “Rationalists” Endorse the Supernatural
24:32 Good Explanations and Decision Making
25:33 Inexplicit Knowledge and Misconceptions
26:38 Quaila: We have them. We cannot describe them
27:42 Intuitions are conjectures
28:51 Either you have a Good Explanation or you don’t
29:45 Vibes can be an indication to investigate further
30:43 Knowledge is not just a “decision engine”
31:31 Obsession with guessing the future is irrational
32:15 A “simulation” of a mind is a mind.
33:08 We cannot predict the output of a creative entity
34:04 Knowledge Rekindles Light When Other Lights Go Out.

Ep 194: David Deutsch’s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 9 ”Quantum Computers” Part 4: Shor’s Algorithm

This is a "return to regular format" episode in one respect - readings from and reflections upon "The Fabric of Reality" but also a departure from regular formatting in another respect: I teach a bunch of simple mathematics. This is for those who might think "quantum computation" and "quantum algorithms" will be forever beyond me. They are not! I begin with (quite literally) primary school mathematics level stuff (what's a prime number, what is the "fundamental theorem of arithmetic") and very gradually move up into algebra and some modular arithmetic and present examples using real numbers of what the problem is and then lead us to a place where we can glimpse the solution (which is Shor's Algorithm). I do not promise to bring the listener to a graduate quantum physics-degree-level of proficiency in quantum information theory and cryptography - but you will gain quite some insight. I refer to the following more in-depth expositions of all this and hopefully bridge the gap I think is there between "I know a little bit of maths and physics" and the kind of thing the following more "high level" videos offer (which I present in order of increasing technical difficulty) 1. The PBS Infinite Series on all this stuff is brilliant. In particular this introduction:    • How to Break Cryp...   and this video focussed more narrowly on Shor's algorithm:    • Hacking at Quantu...   2. Here is Peter Shor himself explaining the history of his work:    • The Story of Shor...   3. Artur Ekert's graduate level free online course on Quantum Information Theory: https://www.youtube.com/@ArturEkert/v... in particular his lecture focussed on Shor's Algorithm:    • IQIS Lecture 6.9 ...   (which, aside from "The Fabric of Reality" itself, served as the basis for this episode).

Ep 193: Effortless Stoicism

I recommend the version found here that contains visuals and music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlvgxEBekP4
However the same message will come through on this audio only podcast.
 
Full Credit for all ideas to:
James (Jim) Pierce
Naval and Nivi
and
David Deutsch
With mistakes all my own
 
See also James' website (and relevant article) here: https://www.james-pierce.com/writings/effortless-stoicism
His instagram account including the original "Effortless Stoicism" video here: https://www.instagram.com/p/CuuDzL9sKOG/
His Twitter and relevant thread here: https://twitter.com/jimmpierce/status/1190810962493788160?s=20
 
Naval and Nivi's work on "How to get rich" where you can download their podcast from Naval's website here: https://nav.al/rich
 
Or the Youtube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-TZqOsVCNM
 
See also Akira The Don's outstanding magical version along with other original music featuring Naval here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_nX7x9AzwUTaGMFNVAxrLNXUJrKFotQ84Y
 
And my new favorite Naval/Nivi/Akira song here: https://www.meaningwave.com/blogs/meaningwave/akira-the-don-naval-ravikant-ft-nivi-you-will-need-to-rent-your-time-to-get-started-single

Ep 192: Where do ideas come from?

This is a cross-post from my Substack podcast "The 3Rs: Reality, Reason, Rationality" the text of which can be found here: https://bretthall.substack.com/p/where-do-ideas-come-from?sd=pf#details
 
This diagram is also relevant:
 

Ep 191: Science News 2: Dark Matter, Fusion, JWST Latest

Science news from a "critical rational" perspective. No "believing" in explanations here, no time for instrumentalism and a focus on good explanations of the evidence.
Introduction (epistemology in science): 00:00
Dark Matter: 04:32
Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND): 08:12
Statistical confidence in physics: 15:23
Instrumentalism in modern physics: 19:00
Fusion Power 'News': 22:09
"Spinoffs" from fusion research: 24:56
Advice for investors in pure science: 28:26
James Webb Space Telescope latest: 31:59
Concluding Remarks: 37:42

Ep 190: David Deutsch’s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 9 ”Quantum Computers” Part3

Here in this second-to-last episode on the discussion of Chapter 9 from the Fabric of Reality we discuss some of the key distinctions between the classical and quantum - the philosophical and scientific implications and then some of the current experimental approaches to (and reporting on) the actual engineering of these devices. 

Ep 189: Epiphenomena

This serves as "part 2" of my "Are Consciousness and Creativity the same thing?" podcast, the Youtube version of which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrjY4fR-qMU

Ep 188: Nick Bostrom on AI on ”Talk TV” - analysis

This podcast was originally produced on Airchat: https://www.getairchat.com/bretthall/bretthall It is all about an interview that can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fv4Uz_i1iQ

Ep 187: Red Pens and Fallibilism

This podcast episode is based around two sets of chits (two "chats") found on airchat at https://www.getairchat.com/bretthall/bretthall?t=440630 The articles associated with these chits and in the latter case many links are here:
https://www.bretthall.org/blog/the-white-swan-and-red-pen and here:
https://www.bretthall.org/blog/the-problem-with-fallibilism

Ep 186: Brett, Naval and more on AI & AGI

The latest on the philosophy, science and technology of AI and AGI. ChatGPT, Deep Learning, Neural Networks and Large Language Models (LLMs). What do we know? Where is it going?

Ep 185: Possibility and Actuality. Facts and Counterfactuals.

Sam Harris and Lex Fridman vs The Multiverse and Constructor Theory. Although this is a reaction video, it's just 10 minutes of Sam with the rest of the time spent me doing some analysis, dissection and "what went wrong" reflection as a vehicle for explaining certain parts of physics and philosophy.

Ep 184: ToKCast Digest - An Overview of Optimism

Everything that we’ve covered on ToKCast so far for those in a hurry or those wanting a refresher. It’s the synecdoche episode. 183 episodes down and David Deutsch has spoken with Naval Ravikant and Tim Ferris, and so begins another cohort of people - a new generation if you like - of people coming to optimism in Deutsch's sense and the infinite potential of people and explanatory knowledge. I begin with some reflections on David’s appearance on The Tim Ferris show. If you watch no other ToKCast episodes or don't have the time for complete commitment - this is the one for you.
ToKCast is now ranked in the top 1% of podcasts worldwide according to "Listen Notes". https://lnns.co/AwGLfoTRgHZ
 
Thankyou to all listeners and especially all supporters. You can support ToKCast by following the links here to Patreon or Paypal: https://www.bretthall.org/

Ep 183: St George in retirement syndrome on St Patrick’s day.

What is "St George in retirement" syndrome? This and much more in another random livestream about all sorts.

Ep 182: Livestream Science News and AMA

Thursday 16 March 2023 Livestream - Patreon and Twitter Questions and Science News Articles discussed: JWST news: https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-star-soon-go-supernova-photos Volcanoes on Venus: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2023/03/15/venus-is-volcanically-active-right-now-say-scientists-using-32-year-old-images/?sh=7e868b8fd11f Plagues in Africa killing amphibian: https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2023/03/15/a-skin-eating-fungal-plague-is-silently-tearing-through-wildlife-across-africa-scientists-warn/?sh=3086d9573f02 ChatGPT4: https://www.forbes.com/sites/gabrielasilva/2023/03/14/the-chatgpt-debate-are-we-intelligent-enough-to-understand-intelligence/?sh=2246e1c684f2

Ep 181: The Big Bang Livestream ToKCast

Reading a short chapter from "What's Eating the Universe?" by Paul Davies titled "The Big Bang" - and adding some exposition and commentary. Also: AMA as time permits. As always I do not monetise anything (there are no ads/I get zero income from youtube) - but if you'd like to support me just go to www.bretthall.org and follow the links to donate. Also the "superchat" feature in Youtube is something that would get to me.

Ep 180: Livestream: ”The Open Hand of Reason”

Defending reason and rationality via a discussion of material at https://www.ecosophia.net/blogs-and-essays/the-well-of-galabes/the-clenched-fist-of-reason/ after a question from a listener.