ToKCast

Ep 128: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 5 ”Beliefs & Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning” Remarks & Analysis

This chapter continues the themes from Chapter 4 as well as my episode all about probability, risk and Bayesianism found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOK5aiASmKM which is an exploration of another talk given by David Deutsch on the nature of probability given what we know about physics. So this chapter of Pinker's book Rationality - being centrally concerned about the use of what is called "Bayesian Reasoning" is compared in this episode to alternative explanations of what rationality and reason amount to. More than previous episodes so far that I have published on the book "Rationality" this one is very much a critique. There is much to recommend the book "Rationality" for two reasons (1) it does summarise and explain some common misconceptions about how to reason or common mistakes people make when reasoning - and these are worth knowing (2) it works as an excellent summary of the prevailing intellectual/academic perspective on these matters for people who are interested in what the truth of the matter is. Knowing what "academic experts" think about this stuff means knowing what gets taught and what filters eventually into culture itself via the "top down" education system we presently have. All that is worth knowing. But here, in this chapter, we encounter the fundamental clash of epistemological worldviews: the mainstream intellectual *prescription* of what they think should be the way people think as against Karl Popper's *description* of the reality as to how knowledge is generated and progress made through incremental identification of errors and their correction. Have fun listening!

Ep 127: The End of Global Order (A response).

A quick reaction video to the first 10 minutes of Sam Harris' "Making Sense" episode number 288 "The End of Global Order" - found here https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir-bwjew-145a8d0b?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share or anywhere podcasts can be found (as of writing this it was not yet on Youtube). This video/podcast is more fun than anything else.

Ep: 126 Origins

I strongly recommend watching this episode on Youtube as it is heavy on the visuals. That video can be found here: https://youtu.be/s3tMRgAHXgw
A version of this podcast/video without the music can be found here:              https://youtu.be/7Ay300_ZjVI           
This is a video/podcast both about the book "The Beginning of Infinity" by David Deutsch and the July 2022 release of images by NASA from the James Webb Space Telescope. The 5 first images are discussed and the broader implications of "discovery science" for our view of our place in and significance for the cosmos. All music by Ketsa Tracks in order: 00:00 Beauty Calls 03:21 No Space 06:42 Falling Angels 10:17 Physics 13:26 Rewinding Time 16:39 Star Blessed Night 19:45 Night Shadows 23:22 Surroundings

Ep 125: Livestreams 1, 2 & 3

These is the audio from knitted together livestreams conducted on YouTube recently. Lots of new questions and common topics discussed. A special introduction for the podcast version of this at the beginning to explain what’s going on. Audio listeners should feel free to submit me questions: find me on Twitter @ToKteacher or else find me on YouTube and leave a comment under any video at all - I read them all.
There's no reason at all audio listeners need to worry about watching the video of these - but incase you want to know where the playlist is, it's here: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLsE51P_yPQCQx7tQSucLA3gYHvPdu1Yri

Ep 124: David Deutsch’s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 6 “Universality and the limits of Computation”

This chapter traverses a terrain of "computers" - the abstract ideas of Turing and Church, the physical computers envisaged by Deutsch and hence quantum computation, the relationship between what computers can do and what mathematics makes possible and ultimately what people can explain and why the universe and reality broadly is comprehensible. We look at the science, the physics and the philosophical consequences of all of this. An inspiring chapter about technology, people and the unbounded possibility of coming to understand reality ever better and thus the physical possibility of always being able to solve problems and make progress.

Ep 123: Ask Me Anything 3

This is an ask me anything episode. The questions and timestamps are as follows:
01:13 Arjun Khemani “Why are problems inevitable?"
06:41 Jiten Terricola “There are differences between men and women. They have different propensities for doing things. What explains this when we’re all universal explainers each capable of doing what any other person can do?”
20:48 - David Hurn “With the right knowledge,can we change the laws of physics/reality? Or can we only get round them? #Optimism"
30:00 - Jeffcoast Bourbon “He’s written a bit on education; does he have any updated thoughts?”
44:58 DingbattusSapiens “Please ask him/her what fallibilism means :) Also, are we a self-domesticated species and why does Adam Sandler have a career.”
57:00  Kees Manshanden “How would you guard against knowledge production that's potentially catastrophic to humanity? For example, the knowledge to create 'easy nukes'; a weapon of mass destruction that can be made by anyone with a high school diploma.”
01:11:27 dean_of_no What is scientific thinking?
01:19:38 Alan Curtis “Why is there only one Monopolies Commission?”
01:32:00 Resty T “I know Deutsch describes his ideas as footnotes to Popper, but didn't he make improvements like "good explanations are hard-to-vary" or was that something Popper expressed too?”
 
Areo Magazine: https://areomagazine.com
Support Areo Magazine: https://www.patreon.com/Areo
Iona Italia: https://twitter.com/IonaItalia
Arjun Khemani: https://arjunkhemani.com
Links to my website and how to support this project through Patreon and/or Paypal: https://www.bretthall.org
David Deutsch: https://www.daviddeutsch.org.uk
Naval Ravikant: https://nav.al
 

Ep 122: ”Work and Heat” - Chiara Marletto’s ”The Science of Can and Can’t” Chapter 6 Readings & Discussion.

In this episode - unlike the other also titled "Work and Heat" - we actually cover the content of Chiara's book and go through some readings. We look at Work and Heat through the lens of Constructor Theory. How so-called "work-like" transformations are reversible but "heat-like" are not and hence we have an avenue to an exact expression of the second law without approximations or talk of what will "most likely" or "probably" happen. We also go over some discussions about the universal constructor.

(Episode 121) Energy

This is an extended Substack Newsletter article on the issue of energy production and associated issues. The article with rather many links and references can be found here (especially for those who doubt the facts and figures) https://bretthall.substack.com/p/energy?sd=pf 

(Episode 120) Newsletter 10: The Jubilee, Peace, Progress and Policing

The substack article with links can be found here: https://bretthall.substack.com/p/the-jubilee-peace-progress-and-policing?sd=fs&s=w#details

Ep 119: Work and Heat: An introduction to thermodynamics (a prelude to Ch 6 of ”The Science of Can & Can’t).

This is part of my series on Chiara Marletto's groundbreaking book on Constructor Theory "The Science of Can and Can't". In this episode, I do not read from the book but set the scene for newcomers who may not have a physics/engineering/chemistry or perhaps the scientific background to be familiar with some of the concepts introduced in the next chapter from that book. Chapter 6 is called "Work and Heat" and Chiara (along with David Deutsch) are working on a "Constructor Theoretic" approach to thermodynamics: which is a first. I thought it instructive to first look at where we have come from: what the understandings are at the moment with all this, what the history has been and therefore set the scene for what Constructor Theory adds which is new. In this episode I cover the basics (but subtleties!) of the 4 laws of thermodynamics, heat engines, temperature, heat, work, energy, degraded energy and entropy along with some remarks about the philosophy and pedagogy of it all. Readings from physical chemist Peter Atkin's and physicist Paul Davies older and more recent books are made so we get an understanding of the significance many place on this area of physics elevating it to a position alongside quantum theory and general relativity as an essential component of a complete worldview for understanding physical reality as of this moment.

(Ep 118: The Planetary Health Authority)

Just a bit of fun more than anything else. A quick response (despite the length of the podcast!) to the pessimism, despair and implied authoritarianism found in an "article" on the Guardian penned by the academics at Monash University in Australia. The article may or may not survive, who knows? So at my Substack here https://bretthall.substack.com/p/the-planetary-health-authority?sd=nfs&s=w#details
the article has been cut and pasted by me as an image. But the original article as of today is here: https://www.theguardian.com/monash-university-the-endangered-generation/2022/may/17/wake-up-call-are-we-really-endangering-the-next-generation

(Ep 117: Heat, Work, Universality and Exams)

This is newsletter number 8 which is an unusually lengthy one, hence it is being released here also as an "irregular" podcast. 
 
The transcript and references can be found here: https://bretthall.substack.com/p/heat-work-universality-and-exams?r=3r9kb&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Ep 116: Objective Knowledge

This is my succinct explanation of "Objective Knowledge" - the concept and not the book of the same name by Karl Popper. However that book of course informs this entire thesis of what Objective Knowledge is. My view of objective knowledge is augmented by more recent advances in epistemology, philosophy and physics by David Deutsch as expressed largely in "The Beginning of Infinity" but also with some reference to "Constructor Theory". I will place more precise time stamps on this episode later but for now there exist roughly 4 parts to this episode:
1. Objectivity vs Subjectivity
2. Objective Knowledge
3. Other ideas about epistemology
4. Conclusions.
 
This episode not only explains "objective knowledge" from the so-called "Popperian" or "Critical Rationalist" perspective in the 21st century but also serves to refute the dominant other competing epistemological notions. In the order I deal with them using quotations from their own proponents and "primary sources" they are: Bayesian Epistemology (as endorsed by other "rationalists" and as explained in places like www.lesswrong.com) and "Objectivist Epistemology" (as first explained by Ayn Rand and promoted by, among others, the Ayn Rand Institute and self-identified "objectivists"). I show how both of these alternatives views of epistemology are not "objective" in two senses. And those two senses of objective are the criteria for objective and are only met by the Popperian framework.

Ep 115: David Deutsch’s ”The Fabric of Reality” Chapter 5 “Virtual Reality”

Although an episode devoted to "virtual reality" may seem quirky, parochial or quaint: the fact is that the concept of virtual reality runs very deep. Our understanding of reality is via virtual reality: that conjuring of the external physical world that our minds manage to do. I cannot do better than a part of the chapter itself where David writes "All reasoning, all thinking and all external experience are forms of virtual reality. These things are physical processes which so far have been observed in only one place in the universe, namely the vicinity of the planet Earth. We shall see... that all living processes involve virtual reality too, but human beings in particular have a special relationship with it. Biologically speaking, the virtual-reality rendering of their environment is the characteristic means by which human beings survive. In other words, it is the reason why human beings exist."(1) These are lofty claims but as always - as appropriate for this book, grounded entirely in reality and understood through reason. I refer to this chapter in some senses as the "synecdoche" chapter: a part of the book that represents the whole. (1) Deutsch, David. The Fabric of Reality (Penguin Science) (p. 121). Penguin Books Ltd. Kindle Edition.

(Ep 114) Newsletter 3: Manners and Misattributions

This is the podcast version of my Substack Newsletter number 3 here https://bretthall.substack.com/p/manners-and-misattributions?r=3r9kb&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
 
Links referred to in the podcast can all be found in that article however here is a link to the historian who writes about Dr. Neil Tyson https://thonyc.wordpress.com/2022/04/13/nil-degrasse-tyson-knows-nothing-about-nothing/
and crucially here is a link to my page providing a pdf version of "Schools of Hellas" the book by Kenneth John Freeman https://www.bretthall.org/schools-of-hellas.html
 

Ep: 113 Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 4 ”Probability and Randomness” Remarks and Analysis

Pinker lecturing on Rationality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW43X... Link to "psychological study" on what people think about meteorological predictions: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1... titled “A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?” This video and associated podcast are about Steven Pinker's book "Rationality". Today I am looking at the chapter titled "Probability and Randomness". Well, to be fair: more than "looking" I am doing a close reading...perhaps an excruciating close reading for some. However the book is about rationality and I think we need to be especially careful when explaining this concept to be precise and careful and - yes - perhaps even consistent (as far as is possible). This episode of ToKCast can be watched or listened to in conjunction with episode number 111 titled "Probability: Reality, Rationality and Risk" because in that episode I summarise David Deutsch's lecture on the topic of probability which brings to bear physical realism to the topic and so what I am doing here is comparing the perspective on "Probability" (and randomness) as described in the book "Rationality" with the perspective on probability as viewed under David Deutsch's realistic conception of the concept given what we know from physics (and philosophy). Todays episode serves 3 functions: (1) as a close reading (i.e: a critique in places) of how the concepts "probability" and "randomness" are used in the book - sometimes, as I argue in ways that appear to be inconsistent (2) as a summary of much of the good content in the chapter - for example anyone who wants a refresher on the high school mathematics of probability - we go through some of that (this is not meant to be a backhanded comment - it is interesting material!) and (3) as I have already said this version of probability which I might call the "mainstream academic" vision of probability as compared with probability in light of more recent discoveries in physics. At this point I should also advertise: my newsletter (see episode 112 for details on that) and my Patreon and donations links at www.bretthall.org

(Ep 112) The 3Rs: Reality, Reason and Rationality. Newsletter 1

This is an advertisement more than a regular ToKCast episode/video. I will sometimes publish some rough and ready material (compared to what appears here on the actual podcast and so forth) on Substack. If you don't know what Substack is - it's just a place where people write stuff (normally). Usually it's journalists who do most of the stuff there. I am choosing a format where I can write and/or also do audio. Go here to see https://bretthall.substack.com/p/manners-and-marketing?r=3r9kb&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web and sign up. I won't publish everything that I produce there here as well. As I say the purpose of Substack, for me, will be to produce less polished material and perhaps stuff that is less "timeless" - so I can comment on cultural issues and perhaps topics of the day. I mention a few things in this episode and links to those things are: Science Historian criticises Neil Tyson: https://thonyc.wordpress.com/2022/04/13/nil-degrasse-tyson-knows-nothing-about-nothing/ Astronomical Disdain: https://www.bretthall.org/blog/astronomical-disdain
Penn Jillette on the funding of libraries: https://youtu.be/nGAO100hYcQ?t=280

Ep 111: Probability - Reality, Rationality and Risk

"Slides" are referred to in this episode. Their absence will not hinder understanding for audio-only listeners - enjoy!
This is a "talk about a talk". Back in 2015 David Deutsch gave a lecture titled "Physics without Probability" which ranged over the history of probability, it's uses and misuses and essentially concluded there was no way in which probability featured in the real world - according to known physics. This is a shocking (for most) conclusion and something many will baulk at. The original talk can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE... and I strongly commend it to all listeners/viewers. Over the years since I have found myself over and again referring to this talk and pointing others to it on the topics of quantum theory or Bayesianism or simply risk assessment.
I do not understand why that talk does not have 10 times the number of viewings. Or 100. It is ground breaking, useful, compelling stuff. It is neither too technical nor too subtle. So this is my attempt to re-sell that talk and provide a slightly different phrasing of what I think is a clear articulation of those important ideas.
People claim to think in terms of probabilities. Physicists speak in terms of probabilities. Philosophers and those who endorse Bayesianism speak in terms of probabilities. How can we do away with it? As an instrument probability might work well. But then so can assuming that your local land is flat even though we know that - strictly - the Earth is curved. Does this matter? If you care about reality and explaining it and hence genuine rationality then you should. Especially when it comes to risk assessment. Towards the end of the podcast I go beyond David's talk into my own musings about various topics - including the notion of risk which has been a request on ToKCast. As always errors herein are my own. If you enjoy this podcast, consider supporting me on Patreon or Paypal. The links for donating can be found on the landing page right here: https://www.bretthall.org

Ep 110: A Tradition of Criticism

A version of this podcast without the musical soundtrack can be found here: https://youtu.be/YfVl70treS8
 
An explanation of a tradition of criticism as an error correction mechanism helping ensure the stability of a society.
Also a defence of free speech and liberty for the 21st century.
Music by Ketsa:
1. "Tradition"
2. "Our Little Blessings"
 
And for those who need it: a pocket sized response to modern day anti-enlightenment figures who say “the west” lacks culture/tradition. Inspired by "The Beginning of Infinity" by David Deutsch.

Ep: 109 ”Objective Morality I: The Principle of Optimism”

Morality, like physics, is objective. It is about solving moral problems. In this first part about the nature of objective morality, I discuss "The Principle of Optimism". First stated in "The Beginning of Infinity" by David Deutsch in Chapter 9 of that book titled "Optimism" it states that "All evils are caused by insufficient knowledge". These 7 words have the profound effect of linking epistemology and morality and further, providing people with hope that no matter the conundrum (moral problem) then it, like a puzzle in physics, has a solution which we can find if we try.